1、 Price trend
According to the data, on April 30, the domestic Carbon Black quotation was 7600 yuan / ton, with a small price fluctuation, and the price fluctuation range was 100-300 yuan / ton, and the carbon black market in this month was stable.
2、 Market analysis
Market quotation
After the middle and late April, the domestic and export sales of tires were under pressure, and some tire enterprises successively lowered their plans to start or save, which was constrained by the weakening demand and the bad mood of carbon black market. However, the carbon black industry still had a strong price stability mentality under the support of high coal tar. Near the end of the month, the bidding price of new coal tar orders suddenly rose higher than the market expectation, and most carbon black companies were unprepared. Some carbon black companies said that they had no profit or even entered the loss situation. Under the pressure of cost, the rising price atmosphere of carbon black market continued to heat up. At present, carbon black companies have basically closed the offer and stopped the order receiving stage, waiting for a new round of price increase plan to be implemented.
Cost
At present, the price of coal tar is relatively high, the trend of downstream deep processing enterprises is not ideal, and many of them are on the verge of loss, the enthusiasm of industrial naphthalene downstream receiving is weak, the short-term expectation is still declining, the downstream demand is stable after the asphalt Festival, the price increase is gradually narrowing, the resistance of deep processing enterprises to accept high price coal tar is increasing, and the coal tar price continues to rise weakly, In the future, the support or performance of carbon black cost will be weakened. Deep processing enterprises may save the centralized maintenance plan from April to may, the demand for coal tar is reduced, the price of coal tar may save the risk of callback, and the cost support of carbon black price stabilization is weakened.
Downstream
This week, the tire industry started a slight decline, but the overall still high, higher than the same period; The semi steel tire market continued to be stable, the goods delivery of all steel tire was not smooth, and the inventory increased; Tricycle tire performance is flat, carbon black is purchased on demand. Other products, Color Masterbatch and other industries showed mediocre performance. In the early stage, they were on the lookout for the trend of carbon black, and the inventory of most enterprises was at the lowest limit. This week, the supply of carbon black market was delayed, especially before the festival, the market fluctuated, and some brand businesses scrambled for goods. In the early stage, they were on the lookout for the market, and the enterprises were slightly passive in preparing goods.
3、 Future forecast
We believe that: the short-term price of carbon black rises steadily, and the expectation of downstream demand will have a certain drag down on the price of carbon black, and the decline of carbon black price may be limited.
