Abstract
In the past decade, the growth rate of global Caustic Soda production capacity fluctuated between 4-6%. In 2012, the global caustic soda production capacity had a significant expansion, with a growth rate of 9.42%. In 2012, the global caustic soda production capacity increased by about 7.959 million tons. The reason may be that in 2010 and 2011, the consumption demand of the world, especially that of China, the main caustic soda consumer, was expanding, and the growth rate was at a high historical level; In 2011, China's consumption growth was 14.88%. Since 2012, the growth rate of global caustic soda has slowed down. By the end of 2020, the global caustic soda production capacity will reach 99.959 million tons.
1、 Basic knowledge of caustic soda
(1) Basic knowledge of caustic soda
The scientific name of caustic soda is sodium hydroxide. Its chemical formula is NaOH, commonly known as caustic soda and caustic soda. It is a kind of strong caustic soda with strong corrosiveness. It is white crystal at room temperature. It is easily soluble in water (exothermic when dissolved in water) and forms alkaline solution. In addition, it has deliquescence. It is easy to absorb water vapor in the air to deliquescence and absorb carbon dioxide to deteriorate. It is a basic chemical raw material of national economy, It is one of the two bases in "three acids and two bases" together with soda ash.
The existing forms of caustic soda are generally divided into liquid caustic soda and solid caustic soda. According to the different content of sodium hydroxide, it can be divided into 30% liquid alkali, 32% liquid alkali, 45% liquid alkali, 50% liquid alkali and 73% solid alkali, 95% solid alkali, 96% solid alkali, 99% solid alkali, 99.5% solid alkali and other series products. From its shape, solid alkali can be divided into barreled solid alkali, flake alkali and granular alkali. The domestic solid caustic market is dominated by flake caustic soda. The main reason is that flake caustic soda has the advantages of simple production process, low production cost, many use scenarios and large market demand.
Caustic soda is an important basic chemical raw material, which is widely used in chemical industry, pulp production and papermaking, printing and dyeing and chemical fiber, metallurgy, soap and Detergent, environmental protection and other industries of national economy.
(2) Caustic soda production process
There are two production methods of caustic soda, one is chemical method or causticization method, the other is electrolysis method. Due to the low purity and poor economic benefit of caustic soda, only a few countries have small-scale production. At present, caustic soda production is mainly by electrolysis, because the stability of caustic soda production by electrolysis is higher, and the economy is higher than that by causticization.
The main raw material of electrolysis method is raw salt. Compared with causticization method, electrolysis method has great advantages in supply stability and price. According to the difference of cell structure, electrolysis material and diaphragm material, electrolysis method can be divided into diaphragm method, mercury method and ion exchange membrane method. Mercury process has been eliminated due to its great environmental pollution. In China, diaphragm process has been basically eliminated due to its high energy consumption and low product quality. Only a few manufacturers retain diaphragm caustic soda units to support their downstream products and do not sell them. Ion exchange membrane technology is the mainstream production method in the world. The Chinese market is dominated by ion exchange membrane technology, and its production capacity accounts for 99.65% of the total production capacity of caustic soda in China.
(3) Upstream and downstream industrial chain of caustic soda
From the perspective of industrial chain, caustic soda, as a basic raw material, is one of the main products produced by chlor alkali enterprises. Its main raw materials are raw salt and electric power. The fluctuation range of crude salt price is limited, which has little impact on the price of caustic soda. The price of electricity is controlled by the state's macro-control, and the electricity price is relatively stable, which can be regarded as a fixed variable. The downstream of caustic soda mainly includes alumina, printing and dyeing, textile, papermaking and fine chemical industry.
(4) Chlor alkali equilibrium
In the chlor alkali plant, caustic soda and chlorine gas will be produced at the same time. Generally, one ton of caustic soda will produce 0.886 tons of chlorine gas at the same time. Because of the co production of caustic soda and liquid chlorine, but the different consumption fields of them determine that when they are produced or supplied at the same time, their demand can not be completely coordinated. Therefore, there is a linkage relationship between the market prices of caustic soda and liquid chlorine. This supply related, demand independent relationship is not common in general chemicals.
2、 Analysis of global caustic soda supply structure
(1) Global caustic soda supply
In the past decade, the growth rate of global caustic soda production capacity fluctuated between 4-6%. In 2012, the global caustic soda production capacity had a significant expansion, with a growth rate of 9.42%. In 2012, the global caustic soda production capacity increased by about 7.959 million tons. The reason may be that in 2010 and 2011, the consumption demand of the world, especially that of China, the main caustic soda consumer, was expanding, and the growth rate was at a high historical level; In 2011, China's consumption growth was 14.88%. Since 2012, the growth rate of global caustic soda has slowed down. By the end of 2020, the global caustic soda production capacity will reach 99.959 million tons.
According to the distribution of caustic soda production capacity in 2020, the global caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in Asia, which accounts for about 62% of the world, among which China accounts for the largest proportion, accounting for about 44% of the world. In addition to China, Northeast Asian countries Japan and South Korea are also big traditional caustic soda producers. According to the detailed statistics in 2019, the production capacity of Japan and South Korea in 2019 is 5 million tons and 2.2 million tons respectively. In recent years, the production capacity pattern of caustic soda in Asia has changed greatly. The production capacity of India has gradually increased, surpassing that of South Korea. In 2019, the production capacity is 3.96 million tons, ranking third among Asian countries.
(2) Global demand for caustic soda
Looking at the demand for caustic soda in the past 10 years, the demand for global caustic soda has been increasing year by year except the demand caused by the global COVID-19 in 2020, but the growth rate has slowed down. During the three years from 2010 to 2012, the growth rate of caustic soda demand was relatively high, with an average growth rate of 5.65%. According to the global demand data in 2020, the total demand of global caustic soda market is 75.772 million tons, which is lower than 79.209 million tons in 2019.
Specifically, the global demand for caustic soda is mainly concentrated in Asia, Europe and North America. At the same time, Asia is also the region with the fastest growth rate of demand. By the end of 2020, Asia's annual demand will reach 46.738 million tons, accounting for 61.68% of the total global demand. Asian demand is mainly concentrated in China, with China's annual demand of 32.563 million tons.
The demand of caustic soda in Europe is close to that in North America. In 2020, the demand will be 11.621 million tons, accounting for about 15% of the total global demand. It is reported that the growth of European demand is mainly concentrated in the chemical industry, pulp, soap industry and other fields. Demand in North America will also account for about 15% in 2020, mainly in the United States. Its main downstream is chemical industry, pulp, paper making, etc. The growth rate of demand for caustic soda in Europe and America is relatively limited.
(3) Global import and export of caustic soda
The main export regions of global caustic soda are mainly distributed in the regions with relatively concentrated production capacity, namely North America and Asia, with the United States and China as the main export countries. Based on the supply and demand data of caustic soda in recent 10 years, it can be seen that the capacity of caustic soda in China and North America is relatively excess. In 2020, the capacity of caustic soda in China and North America is about 1.186 million tons and 1.988 million tons; The net export volume was 1.05 million tons and 1.938 million tons respectively.
3、 Overview of caustic soda market in China
(1) Supply of caustic soda in China
From the global supply and demand data, it is not difficult to see that China is the largest country in both supply and demand, accounting for more than 40% of the world. Therefore, while exploring the global supply and demand, it is necessary to briefly describe China's caustic soda market.
Since 2010, the output and production capacity of caustic soda in China have increased steadily. During the four years from 2011 to 2014, the growth rate was relatively fast, of which the average growth rate of output was maintained at more than 10%, and the average growth rate of production capacity was still about 6.75%; In 2015, affected by the supply side reform and environmental protection policies, the industry chain of caustic soda was structurally adjusted, and the capacity and output of caustic soda showed negative growth on a month on month basis; After the adjustment in 2015, the growth rate of production capacity and output is relatively stable from 2016 to 2020. Over the past decade, China's output has increased from 24.66 million tons in 2011 to 36.432 million tons in 2020, an increase of 47.7%; The production capacity is relatively stable, rising from 34.12 million tons in 2011 to 42.485 million tons, with an annual growth rate of about 3.59%.
In terms of specific caustic soda plants, by the end of 2020, the average production capacity of China's top ten caustic soda enterprises is 1066000 tons, and the average production capacity of the world's top ten caustic soda enterprises is 2648000 tons. The scale of a single enterprise in China is 40% of that in the world, and the scale effect of domestic enterprises has room for further improvement.
(2) Demand for caustic soda in China
The downstream industry with the largest consumption of caustic soda in China is alumina industry. In 2020, the demand for caustic soda will be about 11.039 million tons, accounting for about 31%; The chemical industry's demand for caustic soda accounts for about 14%, and the demand is about 4.986 million tons. In addition, China's annual demand for caustic soda is more than 2 million tons, mainly in printing and dyeing, chemical fiber industry, Water Treatment, medicine, light industry, etc.
According to the apparent consumption data of caustic soda in China in recent ten years and some survey data, the demand of caustic soda in alumina industry will increase from 9.179 million tons in 2105 to 11.039 million tons in 2020. The overall growth rate of alumina industry is about 4.05% per year. The chemical fiber industry is growing rapidly, with an average annual growth rate of about 7%.
(3) Import and export of caustic soda in China
China is the main net exporter of caustic soda. In 2020, China will export 1.1546 million tons of caustic soda, while the import volume is only 43600 tons, and the net export volume will reach 1.111 million tons. Compared with the total demand, the import and export volume of China's caustic soda is small, which mainly plays a role in regulating the supply and demand balance of China's caustic soda market
According to the ten-year import and export data, China's import volume has increased significantly since 2018, and it was basically maintained at about 10000 tons before. In 2018, the import volume of caustic soda was 40900 tons, with a year-on-year increase of about 270%. In 2019, the import volume of caustic soda was 69900 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 70%. Due to the epidemic situation in 2020, the import volume has declined, but there are still 43600 tons. The main reason is that after 2018, the price of domestic caustic soda has increased significantly, while foreign low-cost caustic soda has naturally flowed into China.
In terms of exports, China has always been a net exporter of caustic soda, but the export volume has declined significantly since 2017. In 2019, the export volume is about 1.14 million tons, with a decline of 47% compared with 2011. The main reason is that the domestic price of caustic soda is high and the export attraction is limited. Second, the demand for caustic soda abroad is limited. Third, India has issued bis certification, which hinders the export to India.
In 2020, the total export volume of China's solid caustic soda to other countries will be 316000 tons, and the order of export volume is Vietnam, Indonesia, Russia, Ghana, Nigeria, Kazak, and Djibouti, among which the export volume of the top six countries will not be less than 30000 tons. In 2020, the total amount of the top ten liquid caustic soda exports is 539000 tons, and the export volume of liquid caustic soda is larger than that of solid caustic soda. Among them, Australia's export volume accounts for a relatively large proportion, accounting for 35%, and Taiwan's export volume of China is 27%. The volume of liquid caustic soda imported from China in these two regions is relatively concentrated.
