1、 Price trend
According to the data (average factory price of SG5 by calcium carbide method), on March 30, the mainstream average price of PVC in China was 8775 yuan / ton, up 0.14% from the beginning of this month and 55.43% from the same period last year.
2、 Market analysis
Since the Spring Festival in 2021, driven by the bull market of the collective rise of chemical bulk products, the domestic PVC market has been rising rapidly, and the focus has been constantly moving up. Futures and spot have once again reached the 9000 yuan / ton mark hand in hand. Under the mood of "buying up but not buying down", the industry has entered the market actively, and the market is improving.
In March, affected by the dual control policy of energy consumption in Inner Mongolia, the raw material calcium carbide reached a 10-year high with strong cost support, and the PVC export was better and stronger, which helped the PVC price rise continuously, and the futures price rose to a 10-year high, which can be described as a rapid rise. PVC market high callback in the last ten days, prices continued to decline, waiting for demand to follow up. Near the end of the month, PVC stopped falling and rose slightly, but the rising trend was fleeting, and the prices of various places were generally reduced. At present, the lower reaches of the PVC purchase enthusiasm is not high, the transaction atmosphere is not warm, bargain hunting, wait-and-see, but just need is still in. The price of raw calcium carbide continued to fall, the cost support gradually declined, the disk weakened, and the spot market price loosened.
In terms of spot price, the mainstream quotation range of pvc5 calcium carbide in China is around 8700-8900 yuan / ton. The price of pvc5 calcium carbide in Hangzhou is 8600-8800 yuan / ton, and the price is adjusted back; the mainstream price of pvc5 calcium carbide in Changzhou is 8700-8850 yuan / ton, and the price is adjusted back; the mainstream price of PVC common calcium carbide in Guangzhou is 8700-8820 yuan / ton, and the price is adjusted back; the market quotations of all places are sliding down to varying degrees.
For upstream crude oil, on March 30, the international oil price fell. The settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was $60.55/barrel, down $1.01 or 1.6%. Brent crude oil futures market settlement price of the main contract at 64.14 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 0.84 U.S. dollars or 1.3%. Oil prices fell on Tuesday mainly due to the resumption of navigation of the Suez Canal and the strength of the US dollar. At present, the market is mainly focused on the upcoming OPEC + ministerial meeting.
Ethylene, March 30, European ethylene market, FD northwest Europe quoted 1225-1238 US dollars / ton, down 2 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe quoted 1198-1209 US dollars / ton, down 7 US dollars / ton. On March 30, the U.S. ethylene market quoted a price of US $1216-1229 per ton at FD American Bay. Recently, the U.S. ethylene market is stable and the demand is general. On March 30, the price of ethylene in Asia was USD 1058-1064 / T in Northeast Asia and USD 1003-1009 / T in Southeast Asia. Recently, the price of ethylene in Asia is mainly rising. Affected by the drop in upstream crude oil prices, the ethylene market may fall mainly later.
On March 31, the reference price of calcium carbide was 4200.00, up 17.76% compared with March 1 (3566.67). At the end of this month, with the resumption of large foreign PVC factories, domestic PVC factories began to stop for maintenance, the demand for calcium carbide was no longer as before, and the price of calcium carbide dropped again and again. It is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may drop slightly in early April.
3、 Future forecast
PVC analysts of business news agency believe that the current decline in cost and price, as well as the flat transaction of high price, lead to a relatively volatile trend of PVC in the short term, and the price continues to decline. However, it is difficult for the raw material price to quickly fall back to the previous level, so the cost support still exists. At the same time, the downstream demand is gradually following up. As PVC enterprises are about to enter the maintenance season, the supply side is expected to tighten, and the positive factors are superimposed There are many opportunities for PVC to rise in the future.
