In the second half of 2020, PVC is in a state of tight supply as a whole. Although downstream demand is delayed, it is not absent. Driven by strong demand, PVC price once reached a historical high. It is not difficult to see from the above figure that in 2021, the price of PVC before the festival is at the highest level in the same period of three years. In the case of multiple favorable conditions, such as low industry inventory, substantial increase in pre-sale and good export expectation after the festival, the spot price of PVC remains high. Next, I will analyze the current favorable situation from four aspects:
Inventory of upstream enterprises:
Up to now, the total inventory of upstream enterprises (production capacity accounts for 80%) is 146600 tons, with a month on month increase of 3.33% and a year-on-year decrease of 55.51%. Last year, the epidemic logistics was interrupted, and the export of enterprises was not smooth.
Pre sale of upstream enterprises:
Up to now, the pre-sale volume of upstream enterprises (with production capacity accounting for 60%) is 702200 tons, with a month on month increase of 14.91% and a year-on-year increase of 164.98%. In the same period of last year, the pre-sale volume of downstream enterprises and markets affected by the epidemic is low;
Domestic export statistics:
Up to now, the export pre-sale orders of enterprises have reached 130000 tons, a sharp increase of six times compared with last year. Among them, the pre-sale volume of ethylene process enterprises was 75000 tons, increased by 25% on a month on month basis and 25% on a year-on-year basis. The pre-sale volume of calcium carbide process enterprises was 530700 tons, increased by 17.65% on a month on month basis and 169.39% on a year-on-year basis.
3. Maintenance situation abroad in April:
Asia: Reliance Industries of India plans to carry out an annual overhaul of its 360 kt / a PVC plant in hazira in March, which is expected to last for 15 days. Japan solar ethylene plans to close its 310000 T / a PVC plant in sijishi from March to April for about 50 days of annual maintenance.
Taiwan Formosa Plastics has a maintenance plan in March. Affected by the pipeline maintenance and device maintenance plan, it is estimated that the annual output of PVC, vinyl chloride and EDC will be 546000 tons, 480000 tons and 400000 tons respectively. From March to April, the supply of exportable goods decreased.
Shin-Etsu and oxy chemical of the United States have maintenance plans for their 1.4 million ton and 1 million ton plants in March. Baton Rouge, Louisiana has 513000 ton annual production. Formosa Plastics also has maintenance plans in April. Europe has entered the intensive period of annual overhaul.
In general, the overall industry inventory of PVC is low before the festival, but after the Spring Festival, the centralized maintenance of foreign devices will stimulate the domestic export market. Therefore, under the support of low inventory and good export, the market of PVC after the festival is still strong.
