Introduction
In the first half of 2021, the domestic PVC Paste Resin market was weak, and the price dropped significantly in the second quarter. By the end of June, the market transaction atmosphere did not show any signs of improvement. In the second half of the year, the market favorable factors are still limited, and the supply and demand fundamentals are difficult to find favorable factors for the time being. In the second half of the year, the price of PVC paste Resin may continue to fluctuate on the low side.
The first half of 2021 is over, and the PVC paste resin market is gradually weakening. By the end of June, the average price of glove material market in the first half of 2021 is 20753 yuan / ton, down 8.10% compared with the second half of 2020. The average price of large plate material is 13256 yuan / ton, down 8.49% compared with the second half of 2020. Although the average price decline is limited, the domestic glove material market price is 21000-25300 yuan / ton by the end of 2020, The market price of large plate material is 10900-16500 yuan / ton, while the domestic glove material market price is 9500-11000 yuan / ton at the end of June 2021, and the market price of large plate material is 9100-10300 yuan / ton, which is almost "cut by the waist". In the second half of 2021, the fundamentals are expected to be hard to find substantial positive support for the time being
Whether the planned new production capacity can be put into production on schedule is unknown, and the market supply expectation is still high
In 2020, the price of domestic PVC paste resin will soar all the way, the product profit will reach a new high, and reach the peak of the industry history. Driven by this favorable situation, some enterprises plan to add and expand production, and even some powder resin enterprises also have technological transformation or new paste resin devices, and most of them plan to put into production in 2021. Among them, the new 40000 t / a device of China Salt Inner Mongolia Chemical Co., Ltd. has been put into production in mid April 2021, Other enterprises planned to expand production in the second half of the year include Shandong Langhui, Jiangsu Kangning, Inner Mongolia chenhongli and Sichuan Jinlu.
Since the end of the first quarter of 2021, the domestic demand for gloves materials has turned rapidly, and some micro suspension enterprises have increased their glove material inventory. In April, some enterprises began to consider all or high production of large plates of gloves to alleviate the pressure on glove material inventory. In the case of no obvious increase in the demand for large market materials, and the increase of supply, the situation of larger than demand is more obvious. The price of paste resin in the second quarter is down all the way, and the market atmosphere is low. Because the price of raw calcium carbide is still high, some paste resin enterprises that need to take out calcium carbide have started to lose money by mid June. In the light of the oversupply of market and no obvious improvement in demand, if the price of paste resin still has the possibility of continuous decline, the possibility of new production capacity will be reduced as scheduled.
Gloves industry expectations remain sluggish in the third quarter
According to the sample monitoring of 20 PVC glove products enterprises by Zhuo Chuang information, the average starting load of the products enterprises was about 30% at the end of June. The order of gloves products was very few and the price of the order was low. At present, no signs of improvement in glove products orders have been heard. Some market people believe that even if the orders of products increased in the fourth quarter, the space for order price increase is limited. Therefore, at present, the glove products industry in the third quarter is difficult to improve, and some glove products enterprises still have glove material inventory, so the demand for the opponent's nesting is difficult to increase, and the demand for gloves materials in the third quarter continues to be weak. If the glove material stock of resin paste enterprises is high, the enterprise will continue to produce large plate materials, and the supply of large plate materials is excessive or will continue to maintain.
The energy consumption dual control policy will continue the price of raw materials calcium carbide or continue to fluctuate on the high side
The energy consumption dual control policy is a long-term policy, and the overall tight state of calcium carbide will still be normalized. Policy and power limit may restrict the supply of calcium carbide, but the demand or change of the downstream of calcium carbide is not large, and it is expected that the price of calcium carbide will continue to operate at a high level in the second half of the year.
In summary, the market positive factors in the second half of the year are still weak. In the case of no obvious improvement in the demand surface (especially in glove products industry), the shipping pressure of most resin paste enterprises is still difficult to alleviate. Although some resin paste enterprises have been heard to have load reduction production plans in July, it still takes time to reduce the inventory pressure considering that some enterprises have high inventory, And the third quarter is the traditional off-season downstream of paste resin, and it is expected that the domestic paste resin price will still be depressed in the third quarter; In the fourth quarter, we should pay attention to whether the glove products industry can improve, so as to promote the demand of resin paste gloves. So in the second half of the year, the price center of PVC paste resin will remain low.
