abstract
PVC powder has shown strong performance in the past two trading days after a sharp decline in the early stage. Last Friday (October 20th), there was a slight increase in export volume and short-term upstream maintenance, providing bottom support. Today (October 23rd), the performance is strong, mainly considering whether the reduction in calcium carbide will provide support for Pvc Resin.
PVC Resin has shown strong performance in the past two trading days after a sharp decline in the early stage. Last Friday (October 20th), there was a slight increase in export volume and short-term upstream maintenance, providing bottom support. Today (October 23rd), the performance is strong, mainly considering whether the reduction in calcium carbide will provide support for PVC powder.
Today (October 23rd), the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the "Norms and Conditions for the Calcium Carbide Industry". The futures industry mainly focuses on whether it will bring about a reduction in calcium carbide. The regulations mentioned that the comprehensive energy consumption of calcium carbide production by calcium carbide enterprises should not exceed 823 kilograms of standard coal per ton, and the electricity consumption of electric furnaces should not exceed 3080 kilowatt hours per ton. Encourage enterprises to benchmark energy efficiency in key industrial areas and strengthen technological transformation for energy conservation and carbon reduction; Calcium carbide enterprises should develop carbon emission reduction plans, and the carbon dioxide emissions per ton of calcium carbide (converted to standard gas output of 300L/kg) should not exceed 2.1 tons (calculated in accordance with the "Greenhouse Gas Emission Accounting and Reporting Requirements - Part 10: Chemical Production Enterprises" (GB/T32151.10)).
1. We believe that the impact on supply is not significant for the time being
① Most industries have stated that in recent years, there has been a significant effort to eliminate single calcium carbide furnaces with a capacity below 25000 kVA, with most of the calcium carbide furnaces exceeding this standard;
② The general provisions of the "Normative Conditions for the Calcium Carbide Industry" are applicable to all types of calcium carbide enterprises within the territory of the People's Republic of China (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan), used to guide the transformation and upgrading of the calcium carbide industry, and do not have the prerequisite or mandatory administrative approval;
③ In July of this year, the "Energy Efficiency Benchmarking and Benchmarking Levels in Key Industrial Fields (2023 Edition)" stipulated that the requirements for carbide energy consumption were 805 kilograms of standard coal at the benchmark level and 940 kilograms of standard coal at the benchmark level, with reference to standard GB21343; Its standard requirements are consistent in 2021, and most calcium carbide furnaces can meet the conditions. Today's "Standard Conditions for the Calcium Carbide Industry" did not exceed the benchmark level announced in July.
2. However, it can have an impact on emotions and provide support for single-ended PVC Resin
① The utilization rate of calcium carbide production capacity has been low in the first half of this year, and after the second half of this year, with the increase of PVC resin production using calcium carbide method, calcium carbide is still a variety with oversupply. Restricted by the production of PVC powder, the second downstream BDO production increase in calcium carbide storage is lower than expected, and the integration of multiple calcium carbide BDO is the main trend, resulting in significant pressure on exporting calcium carbide;
② At present, the theoretical cost of Wuhai calcium carbide is 3346 yuan, the factory price of calcium carbide is 2800 yuan, and the profit of calcium carbide is 546 yuan. The theoretical loss has reached the low level within the year (the actual cost is low, and the breakeven point is reached);
③ Calcium carbide has low profits, high operating load elasticity, and suppressed price elasticity. The policy has limited benefits for it, which is more emotional support.
