The continuous decline in caustic soda prices makes it difficult for PVC supply and demand to have effective support

October 16, 2023

Sanyou Paste Pvc Resin Sy Z170

Pvc Resin

Fundamentally, the maintenance of PVC powder plants continues to decrease, and the start of production has rebounded to a high level. As of October 12th, the overall operating load rate of PVC Resin was 80.05%, a decrease of 1.62 percentage points compared to the previous month. The overall peak season on the demand side was not as expected, and the order situation of tube and profile enterprises was poor, resulting in a decrease in export delivery and insufficient support.

As of October 12th, the total inventory of sample warehouses in East and South China was 396200 tons, an increase of 0.51% compared to the previous period and 8.52% year-on-year. As of October 12th, the available inventory of PVC powder for sample production enterprises was 5900 tons, a decrease of 1700 tons compared to the previous period; The inventory in the PVC powder factory area of the sample production enterprise is 388900 tons, an increase of 13400 tons compared to the previous period.

Overall, the supply side remains at a high level, while the demand side lacks follow-up. Factories and warehouses are accumulating, and the high level of social and financial resources is not smoothly dissipated. It is difficult to effectively support the supply and demand side, and the fundamentals of the medium to long term are still weak. We will continue to pay attention to cost trends and macro policy aspects. If coal prices rise and Caustic Soda does not significantly decline, the downward space for PVC powder will be narrowed.

Caustic Soda

Shandong Xinfa's 500000 ton liquid caustic soda plant is expected to enter maintenance on October 11th; The 600000 ton liquid caustic soda plant in Jinling, Shandong Province began shutdown on October 12th and is expected to undergo maintenance for 15 days; The maintenance of the 290000 ton chlor alkali equipment in Tianjin Lejin began on October 7th, and it has been around half a month since the maintenance. There are still many devices undergoing maintenance in October.

In terms of demand, as of October 12th, the weekly operating rate of alumina is 82% (+1%), the weekly production capacity utilization rate of adhesive short fiber is 78.88% (-0.46%), and the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 69.51% (-0.39%). The overall downstream demand is acceptable, but the follow-up efforts at high prices are insufficient.

As of October 12th, the total inventory of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200000 tons or more nationwide is 398800 tons (+23.51%). Starting from October 17th, a certain alumina manufacturer in Shandong province lowered the purchase price of liquid caustic soda by 35 yuan/ton, and 32% of ionic membrane caustic soda was purchased at 900 yuan/ton.

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